A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
